According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in February 2025, 19,270 excavators of all types were sold, up 52.8% year-on-year, and 11,640 were sold domestically, up 99.4% year-on-year. From January to February, a total of 31,782 units were sold, up 27.2% year-on-year, 17,045 units were sold domestically, up 51.4% year-on-year, and 14,737 units were exported, up 7.4% year-on-year.
The industry was hotly discussed after the data was released, but the growth rate of domestic sales in January and February continued the trend of the second half of 2024, which is still lower than that in 2022, and is affected by the Spring Festival. The follow-up needs to be observed. The sales volume in early 2025 is inflated. First, dealers have a strong willingness to stock up at the end of 2024, and second, some domestic brands promote leasing business.
Domestic sales of excavators rebounded in 2024, but market demand did not improve significantly. The media predicts that the growth rate of national fixed asset investment in January and February will be the same as last year, infrastructure resumption will be slow, real estate-related data will be poor, the project resumption rate will be lower than the same period last year, and there will be few new projects. This round of sales growth is mainly due to policy guidance for the renewal of old equipment.
Unlike the upward cycle in 2016, the current ownership of small excavators and domestic brands has increased, policy intervention is strong, and the replacement cycle of old equipment has been advanced.
Starting from 2021, the structure of the excavator market will change dramatically:
1. The proportion and sales volume of small equipment have increased, not only due to the replacement cycle, but also due to the growing demand for small equipment to replace manual labor. It is widely used and tends to be a weak-cycle product, and is an incremental market in the segmented field.
2. The deepening market differences among regions are affected by factors such as real estate, economy, and policies, bringing challenges to manufacturers and dealers.
3. Distribution channel changes are intensifying, and most dealers are making losses. As the market evolves, channel changes will become more profound.
4. The overseas circulation of second-hand mobile phones has accelerated, easing the supply and demand in the domestic rental market, stimulating the demand for new phones, and OEMs have tried new marketing models.
We should be cautiously optimistic about the surge in excavator sales in January and February. Although the recovery of excavators is unlikely to drive a rebound in other construction machinery, judging from Hengli Hydraulics' production data, excavator sales will increase significantly in March-June.
Looking ahead to 2025, driven by external factors such as the stabilization of the real estate market, accelerated infrastructure construction, and equipment renewal policies, as well as internal drivers such as the demand for small excavator renewal, product attributes, and second-hand exports, domestic excavator sales are expected to increase by more than 35%, and domestic sales may exceed 140,000 units. The dynamics of the electric excavator market are also worth paying attention to. The excavator industry in 2025 is worth looking forward to, and practitioners need to grasp the direction and timing.
