The latest sales data of excavators in September shows that the sales of excavators have been growing for three consecutive months, and the industry has obvious signs of recovery. The sustained high growth of overseas markets has become an important pillar.
According to the excavator sales data disclosed by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association on October 11, about 21,200 excavators of various types will be sold in September 2022, a year-on-year increase of about 5.5%. Since the first positive conversion in 14 months in July this year, the growth rate of excavator sales has remained in the positive range for three consecutive months, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 0% (increase of 1 unit), and 5.5% respectively. At the same time, the cumulative decline in excavator sales during the year also narrowed to 28.3% from 36.1% in the first six months.
It is worth mentioning that the monthly sales growth rate of 5.5% was higher than industry expectations. According to the observation report released by CME at the end of September, it is estimated that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in September 2022 will be about 18,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of about 9%.
From a structural point of view, the year-on-year decline in domestic sales of excavators continued to narrow. In September, domestic sales of excavators were 10,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, and the previous value was 26.3%. Exports of excavators further increased on the basis of last year's high base. The monthly export was 10,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 73.3%, and the previous value was 56.7%.
Domestic demand is supported by policies
The demand for excavators comes from the groundbreaking of projects in infrastructure, real estate and other fields. The demand for excavators directly reflects the enthusiasm for investment in infrastructure and fixed assets in various places.
Since July, the continuous recovery of domestic excavator sales has been supported by policies. The executive meeting of the State Council held on August 24, after deploying 33 measures in 6 aspects in May this year, once again made a comprehensive deployment on stabilizing the economic market and added 19 follow-up policies. A number of policies are directed at the field of infrastructure: including increasing the quota of policy-based development financial instruments, approving the start of a number of infrastructure projects with mature conditions, and so on. Judging from a number of indicators, relevant policies have begun to bear fruit.
The latest social financing data show that in September, social financing increased by 3.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 624.5 billion yuan year-on-year, which was higher than the average market expectation; the increase in real loans was 2.57 trillion yuan, the highest in the same period since the statistics. The financing of the corporate sector is relatively strong, and institutions believe that it is related to factors such as the implementation of policy-based developmental financial instruments and the resumption of project construction after the high temperature weather eases.
According to industry insiders, in September, especially since the end of September, the start of infrastructure-related projects has improved significantly. Investors can further look forward to data such as fixed asset investment that will be disclosed in mid-October.
In addition, the construction machinery industry is about to start the "National IV" era. From December 1, all non-road mobile machinery below 560 kW (including 560 kW) produced, imported and sold and their diesel engines should meet the "National IV" standard. According to feedback from market participants, this policy change will often promote the short-term sales of construction machinery.
Overseas sales continue to create surprises
In the context of the high growth of excavator exports last year, the growth momentum of excavator exports has remained strong this year. In September, the export volume of excavators in a single month surpassed domestic sales.
In terms of growth rate, excavator exports in September increased by 73.3% year-on-year, higher than the cumulative 70.5% this year. It is worth mentioning that such high growth is achieved on the basis of a high base. In 2021, my country's annual export of excavators will be 68,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 97%, and the single export volume will hit record highs.
In terms of sales volume, the export volume of excavators surpassed domestic sales in September: 10,700 excavators were exported in a single month in September, slightly exceeding domestic sales by 147 units. As a comparison, the export of excavators from January to September this year totaled 80,300 units, accounting for 40% of the total sales of excavators; last year, the export of excavators was 68,400 units, accounting for 20% of the total sales of excavators.
The strength of exports is reflected in the financial report, which means that the quality and quantity of overseas markets have both increased. According to the company's mid-year report, the overseas revenue of construction machinery leaders Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Machinery, and Zoomlion accounted for 41.3%, 32.7%, and 18.3%, respectively, an increase of 22.8 percentage points, 23.6 percentage points, and 11.2 percentage points year-on-year. . The profitability of overseas business is also better. Taking the leading company Sany Heavy Industry as an example, the gross profit margin of the company's overseas business in the first half of the year was 24.4%, which is more than 3 percentage points higher than that of domestic business.
The reasons for the continuous breakthrough of domestic enterprises in overseas markets include the growth of overall overseas demand after the epidemic, but the core is the increase in market share brought about by the improvement of the competitiveness of domestic construction machinery enterprises, and this process may have just begun. As of the first half of this year, Sany Heavy Industry, which has the highest domestic and overseas market share, has an overseas market share of about 8% (an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the beginning of the year), and there is still a lot of room for expansion
